Will Deepa Mehta's water bag Oscar?

In the academy of motion picture award, Water is not an Indian entry. But the film is already much talked about in India.
The reasons are many- Like the Indian theme; the presence of Bollywood hot property John Abraham; the publicity it got because of the strong protest of Hindutwa brigades even as the shooting was going on in India. And it was because of this opposition that the shooting venue was shifted to Sri Lanka. (Who said Sri Lanka is not safe!). The theme also was popular - Woman empowerment, something very dear to Deepa. And there were enough sentiments, wits & drams- all mixed together in an elegant way.
Deepa always tends to show what the West would like to see in films about India- Uncultured people, the brutal & illiterate villagers, the patriarchal cruelty...Okay, but will these bring in the Oscar?
Not likely, if go by speculations.
And those who watch things closely see much things in favor of the Mexican film 'Pan's Labyrinth'.
The Labyrinth is about a young girl who is so captivated by a fairy tale that she imagine herself to be the lost Princes in the story.
In the wake of her mothers remarriage to a cruel fascist officer, young Ofelia explores a vast stone labyrinth, where she encounters the faun Pan and is given a series of three tasks to perform.
For Water also, the center character is a young girl.
The story of Water takes place in India during the era of struggle for independence, where as Pan's Labyrinth portrays the violent period following the Spanish civil war.
While Water has managed to get nomination for only one category -Best Foreign Language Film of the Year, Pan's Labyrinth has five more nominations: Achievement in Art Direction, Achievement in Cinematography,Achievement in Makeup, Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score) and Original Screenplay.